MODEL VERDICT
Brookfield Business Partners L.P. (BBU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $31.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $31.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $31.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $31.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $31.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $29.10 | -7.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $732.82 | +2229.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $159.12 | +405.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $595.83 | +1793.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $1101.60 | +3401.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $1291.32 | +4004.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $180.28 | +473.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $226.55 | +620.1% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.32 | 3.47 | 1.07 | 34.23 | 12.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.88 | 12.64 | 6.74 | 16.73 | 3.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.39 | 6.93 | 4.99 | 13.02 | 3.27 |
| P/FCF | 3.56 | 2.40 | 0.69 | 9.52 | 3.46 |
| P/FFO | 1.07 | 0.91 | 0.39 | 3.22 | 0.98 |
| P/AFFO | 3.32 | 2.12 | 0.83 | 10.56 | 3.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.22 | 0.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates BBU's fair value at $226.55 vs the current price of $31.46, implying +620.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $226.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $220.89 (P10) to $368.05 (P90), with a median of $292.13.
BBU's current P/E of -62.9x compares to the industry median of 32.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -293.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.3x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover BBU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $42.00 (range: $40.00 — $44.00), implying +33.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BBU.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.