MODEL VERDICT
Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock (ALAB) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $118.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $129.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.05 | $129.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.03 | $182.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $162.61 | Below threshold | +15.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $80.54 | -32.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $29.13 | -75.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $51.43 | -56.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $77.04 | -35.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $42.30 | -64.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $76.72 | -35.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $36.94 | -68.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $37.02 | -68.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $52.45 | -55.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $79.79 | -32.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $63.02 | -47.0% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 81× | 89× | 97× (Current) | 105× | 113× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $103 | $113 | $123 | $133 | $143 |
| Conservative (7%) | $105 | $116 | $126 | $136 | $147 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $109 | $119 | $130 | $141 | $152 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $112 | $123 | $134 | $145 | $156 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALAB's fair value at $63.02 vs the current price of $118.83, implying -47.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $63.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $46.78 (P10) to $68.38 (P90), with a median of $57.35.
ALAB's current P/E of 97.4x compares to the industry median of 42.2x (47 peers in the group). This represents a +131.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
15 analysts cover ALAB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $202.14 (range: $165.00 — $225.00), implying +70.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ALAB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.