MODEL VERDICT
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $4.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $3.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $4.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $4.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $3.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $6.93 | +73.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $2.77 | -30.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $14.74 | +268.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $6.69 | +67.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.28 | +82.0% | 100% | 52 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $3 | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 |
| Conservative (5%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $6 |
| Base Case (-19.2%) | $2 | $3 | $3 | $4 | $5 |
| Bull Case (-26%) | $2 | $3 | $3 | $4 | $4 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FFO | 106.79 | 30.81 | 10.22 | 279.34 | 149.79 |
| P/TBV | 3.95 | 3.71 | 2.51 | 5.88 | 1.60 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.74 | 3.52 | 2.37 | 5.56 | 1.50 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.72 | 0.55 | 0.33 | 1.43 | 0.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates ULCC's fair value at $7.28 vs the current price of $4.00, implying +82.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 52/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.56 (P10) to $8.78 (P90), with a median of $5.56.
ULCC's current P/E of 10.5x compares to the industry median of 18.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -42.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover ULCC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $6.67 (range: $6.00 — $8.00), implying +66.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (8), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 52/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ULCC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.