MODEL VERDICT
Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $71.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $66.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $58.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $57.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $52.78 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $46.65 | -34.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $22.42 | -68.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $26.26 | -63.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $87.89 | +22.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $79.97 | +11.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $21.43 | -70.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.96 | -28.8% | 100% | 67 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 166.51 | 103.30 | 80.81 | 411.63 | 127.27 |
| P/TBV | 11.76 | 13.90 | 5.19 | 16.38 | 4.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.58 | 5.21 | 3.88 | 14.81 | 3.73 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.23 | 10.27 | 6.96 | 31.55 | 8.38 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMBA's fair value at $50.96 vs the current price of $71.56, implying -28.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.70 (P10) to $66.88 (P90), with a median of $52.08.
AMBA's current P/E of -25.2x compares to the industry median of 38.1x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -166.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
36 analysts cover AMBA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $98.33 (range: $80.00 — $115.00), implying +37.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AMBA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.