MODEL VERDICT
Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $93.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $89.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $78.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $74.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $71.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $59.24 | -36.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $44.84 | -52.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $65.21 | -30.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $22.00 | -76.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $57.45 | -38.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $70.89 | -24.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $80.99 | -13.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $65.22 | -30.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $52.74 | -43.9% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 56.63 | 46.58 | 16.48 | 133.94 | 44.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 57.16 | 52.18 | 14.53 | 134.80 | 42.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.47 | 22.66 | 10.76 | 37.40 | 9.02 |
| P/FCF | 22.34 | 18.10 | 12.05 | 44.34 | 10.81 |
| P/FFO | 23.04 | 19.81 | 11.28 | 45.67 | 11.79 |
| P/AFFO | 26.45 | 20.59 | 12.56 | 54.90 | 14.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.30 | 6.34 | 4.72 | 8.83 | 1.58 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.28 | 5.96 | 4.12 | 8.66 | 1.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates MCHP's fair value at $52.74 vs the current price of $93.95, implying -43.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $52.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.16 (P10) to $59.19 (P90), with a median of $49.07.
MCHP's current P/E of -9999.0x compares to the industry median of 44.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -22645.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 56.6x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
46 analysts cover MCHP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $87.00 (range: $69.00 — $100.00), implying -7.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (2), Buy (30), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MCHP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.