MODEL VERDICT
American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $52.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $49.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $39.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $37.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $37.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $104.07 | +98.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $11.97 | -77.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $12.52 | -76.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $24.09 | -54.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $25.86 | -50.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $28.02 | -46.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $25.78 | -50.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $9.26 | -82.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $22.73 | -56.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $44.33 | -15.6% | 100% | 62 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 276× | 302× | 328× (Current) | 354× | 380× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $46 | $50 | $55 | $59 | $63 |
| Conservative (7%) | $47 | $51 | $56 | $60 | $65 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $49 | $53 | $58 | $62 | $67 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $50 | $55 | $60 | $64 | $69 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 105.80 | 35.91 | 5.53 | 275.96 | 148.14 |
| P/TBV | 4.58 | 3.51 | 2.47 | 7.68 | 1.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.99 | 2.71 | 1.25 | 4.80 | 1.31 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.32 | 2.73 | 0.97 | 6.42 | 1.75 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMSC's fair value at $44.33 vs the current price of $52.51, implying -15.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $44.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.93 (P10) to $100.56 (P90), with a median of $62.65.
AMSC's current P/E of 328.2x compares to the industry median of 78.2x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +319.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
15 analysts cover AMSC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $61.50 (range: $55.00 — $68.00), implying +17.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AMSC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.