MODEL VERDICT
Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (APLS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $20.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $22.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $21.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $22.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $27.30 | Pending | -16.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $11.53 | -45.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $3.79 | -81.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $9.51 | -54.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $12.25 | -41.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $11.14 | -46.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $55.47 | +164.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $55.78 | +166.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $4.27 | -79.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $9.95 | -52.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.90 | -14.6% | 100% | 79 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 98× | 107× | 116× (Current) | 125× | 134× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $23 | $25 |
| Conservative (7%) | $19 | $21 | $22 | $24 | $26 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $27 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 27.35 | 21.02 | 8.55 | 55.67 | 15.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 27.35 | 21.02 | 8.55 | 55.67 | 15.59 |
| P/S Ratio | 29.57 | 17.53 | 4.59 | 72.75 | 29.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates APLS's fair value at $17.90 vs the current price of $20.96, implying -14.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.39 (P10) to $20.55 (P90), with a median of $15.68.
APLS's current P/E of 116.4x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (48 peers in the group). This represents a +453.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
25 analysts cover APLS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $33.50 (range: $19.00 — $52.00), implying +59.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (17), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for APLS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.