MODEL VERDICT
The Boeing Company (BA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $227.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $232.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $223.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $223.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $217.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $0.97 | -99.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $58.11 | -74.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $169.15 | -25.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $196.28 | -13.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $58.64 | -74.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $46.99 | -79.3% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 78× | 85× | 92× (Current) | 99× | 106× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $201 | $219 | $237 | $255 | $273 |
| Conservative (7%) | $206 | $225 | $243 | $261 | $280 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $213 | $232 | $251 | $270 | $289 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $220 | $239 | $259 | $279 | $298 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 290.47 | 188.83 | 76.44 | 606.13 | 279.09 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.96 | 1.90 | 1.70 | 2.42 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates BA's fair value at $46.99 vs the current price of $227.46, implying -79.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $46.99 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $77.94 (P10) to $113.88 (P90), with a median of $95.88.
BA's current P/E of 91.7x compares to the industry median of 23.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +291.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
54 analysts cover BA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $263.67 (range: $150.00 — $298.00), implying +15.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (36), Hold (13), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.