Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated Feb 28, 2026
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
As of March 2, 2026, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $188.62, based on estimates from 58 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $144.11, this represents a potential upside of +30.9%. The company has a market capitalization of $2.66T.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $140.00 to a high of $225.00, representing a 45% spread in expectations. The median target of $190.00 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 51 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,6 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment suggests analysts see significant catalysts for upside ahead.
From a valuation perspective, BABA trades at a trailing P/E of 18.4x and forward P/E of 3.4x. Analysts expect EPS to grow -18.3% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $1128.63, with bear and bull scenarios of $710.35 and $5170.95 respectively. Model confidence stands at 61/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
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Start ComparisonThe consensus Wall Street price target for BABA is $188.62, representing 30.9% upside from the current price of $144.11. With 58 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
BABA has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 58 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 51 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $188.62 implies 30.9% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 3.4242x, BABA trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $188.62 implies 30.9% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $225 for BABA, while the most conservative target is $140. The consensus of $188.62 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $5171 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
BABA is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 58 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 51 have Buy ratings, 6 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month BABA stock forecast based on 58 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $188.62, with estimates ranging from $140 (bear case) to $225 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $1129, with bear/bull scenarios of $710/$5171.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates BABA's fair value at $1129 (base case), with a bear case of $710 and bull case of $5171. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 61/100.
BABA trades at a forward P/E ratio of 3.4x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 18.4x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on BABA, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $188.62 price target (30.9% upside). 51 of 58 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
BABA analyst price targets range from $140 to $225, a 45% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $188.62 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $710-$5171 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.