MODEL VERDICT
Belden Inc. (BDC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $114.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $134.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $130.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $127.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $128.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $223.84 | +96.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $237.02 | +107.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $242.78 | +112.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $177.75 | +55.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $258.95 | +126.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $195.92 | +71.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $405.05 | +254.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $246.81 | +116.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $254.55 | +123.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $252.65 | +121.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $169.95 | +48.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $207.95 | +82.2% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (15%) | $102 | $115 | $129 | $143 | $156 |
| Conservative (24%) | $110 | $125 | $140 | $154 | $169 |
| Base Case (37.3%) | $122 | $138 | $154 | $170 | $187 |
| Bull Case (50%) | $133 | $151 | $169 | $187 | $204 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.54 | 21.15 | 12.57 | 46.62 | 12.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.01 | 16.44 | 10.39 | 20.78 | 3.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.13 | 11.03 | 8.30 | 14.47 | 2.11 |
| P/FCF | 18.53 | 18.17 | 13.91 | 22.56 | 3.18 |
| P/FFO | 16.88 | 13.79 | 9.32 | 35.05 | 9.67 |
| P/AFFO | 24.50 | 20.31 | 13.44 | 48.93 | 14.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.99 | 2.84 | 2.40 | 3.71 | 0.51 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.37 | 1.30 | 1.07 | 1.89 | 0.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BDC's fair value at $207.95 vs the current price of $114.15, implying +82.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $207.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $166.98 (P10) to $216.35 (P90), with a median of $191.53.
BDC's current P/E of 19.3x compares to the industry median of 41.1x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -53.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.5x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover BDC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $150.00 (range: $150.00 — $150.00), implying +31.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BDC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 100.0% to approximately $115. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.