MODEL VERDICT
BGC Group, Inc (BGC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $11.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $11.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $11.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $11.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $10.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $6.51 | -42.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $9.88 | -12.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $0.83 | -92.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $6.51 | -42.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $20.20 | +79.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.48 | -24.8% | 100% | 77 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $10 | $11 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Conservative (20%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $16 |
| Base Case (30.3%) | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| Bull Case (41%) | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 | $18 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.48 | 36.24 | 14.53 | 103.14 | 28.68 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.68 | 20.08 | 12.95 | 31.27 | 6.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.37 | 13.23 | 9.41 | 67.35 | 20.68 |
| P/FCF | 13.02 | 10.81 | 6.90 | 21.70 | 5.57 |
| P/FFO | 20.02 | 18.80 | 12.20 | 30.32 | 6.70 |
| P/TBV | 32.89 | 27.28 | 14.57 | 62.45 | 21.53 |
| P/AFFO | 42.00 | 32.00 | 12.83 | 102.97 | 32.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.58 | 3.79 | 2.57 | 4.30 | 0.67 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.45 | 1.49 | 1.06 | 1.97 | 0.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates BGC's fair value at $8.48 vs the current price of $11.27, implying -24.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.83 (P10) to $12.71 (P90), with a median of $10.18.
BGC's current P/E of 36.4x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +73.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 42.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
2 analysts cover BGC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $11.50 (range: $11.50 — $11.50), implying +2.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BGC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 590.0% to approximately $11. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.