MODEL VERDICT
BKV Corporation (BKV) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $31.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $31.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $30.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $30.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $25.80 | Below threshold | +18.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $29.35 | -6.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $9.30 | -70.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $27.18 | -13.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $15.08 | -51.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $19.65 | -37.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $16.50 | -47.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $27.17 | -13.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.95 | -29.9% | 100% | 46 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $24 | $28 | $32 | $37 | $41 |
| Conservative (7%) | $25 | $29 | $33 | $37 | $42 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $26 | $30 | $34 | $39 | $43 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $27 | $31 | $35 | $40 | $44 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates BKV's fair value at $21.95 vs the current price of $31.33, implying -29.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 46/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.29 (P10) to $25.18 (P90), with a median of $20.74.
BKV's current P/E of 16.1x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (43 peers in the group). This represents a +15.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
6 analysts cover BKV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $34.00 (range: $32.00 — $36.00), implying +8.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 46/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BKV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7090.0% to approximately $9. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.