MODEL VERDICT
BlackLine, Inc. (BL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $35.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $36.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $38.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $44.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $56.59 | Pending | -24.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $48.78 | +38.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $16.50 | -53.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $38.18 | +8.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $50.20 | +42.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $5.88 | -83.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $47.29 | +34.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $32.71 | -7.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $31.51 | -10.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $42.35 | +20.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $50.55 | +43.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $264.16 | +649.4% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 | $42 |
| Conservative (7%) | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 | $45 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $33 | $36 | $39 | $43 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 2592.17 | 87.48 | 65.28 | 7623.75 | 4357.49 |
| P/FCF | 173.65 | 142.39 | 23.67 | 528.03 | 169.34 |
| P/FFO | 121.05 | 43.70 | 21.11 | 298.34 | 153.95 |
| P/TBV | 385.36 | 57.90 | 15.04 | 1410.61 | 684.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 14.65 | 15.46 | 6.77 | 29.50 | 8.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.06 | 9.69 | 6.84 | 21.55 | 5.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates BL's fair value at $264.16 vs the current price of $35.25, implying +649.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $264.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $50.36 (P10) to $704.04 (P90), with a median of $266.02.
BL's current P/E of 24.3x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -7.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Fair Value.
25 analysts cover BL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $53.25 (range: $45.00 — $68.00), implying +51.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (12), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.