MODEL VERDICT
Bausch + Lomb Corporation (BLCO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $16.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $15.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $16.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $16.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $16.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $12.70 | -22.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $10.87 | -33.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $36.75 | +125.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $48.33 | +196.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.20 | -6.8% | 100% | 54 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 65.64 | 69.81 | 34.71 | 88.22 | 22.52 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.63 | 18.69 | 12.97 | 20.16 | 3.19 |
| P/FFO | 53.89 | 51.20 | 14.10 | 99.06 | 34.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.88 | 0.90 | 0.76 | 0.97 | 0.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.18 | 1.44 | 0.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates BLCO's fair value at $15.20 vs the current price of $16.31, implying -6.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.20 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.81 (P10) to $17.02 (P90), with a median of $14.90.
BLCO's current P/E of -16.0x compares to the industry median of 29.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -154.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover BLCO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $19.00 (range: $16.00 — $21.00), implying +16.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BLCO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.