MODEL VERDICT
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $27.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $26.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $27.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $27.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $25.48 | Pending | +6.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $36.25 | +31.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $35.58 | +28.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $32.85 | +18.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $54.62 | +97.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $55.79 | +101.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $53.89 | +94.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 15 industry peers | $34.94 | +26.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $37.71 | +36.4% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $22 | $25 | $28 | $31 | $33 |
| Conservative (5%) | $23 | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 |
| Base Case (-3.5%) | $21 | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 |
| Bull Case (-5%) | $21 | $23 | $26 | $29 | $31 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.98 | 18.31 | 9.37 | 77.56 | 23.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.27 | 19.54 | 9.13 | 71.12 | 21.14 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.65 | 14.32 | 6.96 | 20.06 | 5.67 |
| P/FCF | 18.53 | 16.61 | 11.28 | 34.29 | 8.61 |
| P/FFO | 12.24 | 11.17 | 8.06 | 19.51 | 3.89 |
| P/TBV | 120.19 | 108.41 | 1.52 | 250.65 | 124.98 |
| P/AFFO | 16.83 | 13.08 | 8.85 | 36.40 | 10.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.72 | 3.06 | 1.52 | 4.35 | 1.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.51 | 2.93 | 2.26 | 5.12 | 1.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates PFE's fair value at $37.71 vs the current price of $27.65, implying +36.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $37.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.05 (P10) to $47.97 (P90), with a median of $40.31.
PFE's current P/E of 20.3x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (14 peers in the group). This represents a -15.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.0x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
37 analysts cover PFE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $27.36 (range: $24.00 — $35.00), implying -1.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (23), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PFE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 11000.0% to approximately $58. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.