MODEL VERDICT
Marqeta, Inc. (MQ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $4.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $4.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $4.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $4.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $3.85 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $0.13 | -97.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $2.92 | -32.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $5.85 | +35.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $4.15 | -4.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $2.18 | -49.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $2.93 | -32.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.71 | +101.1% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 165.02 | 103.34 | 13.65 | 439.74 | 196.01 |
| P/TBV | 3.53 | 3.43 | 2.11 | 5.91 | 1.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.17 | 2.88 | 1.81 | 5.91 | 1.60 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.06 | 4.45 | 3.51 | 17.97 | 6.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates MQ's fair value at $8.71 vs the current price of $4.33, implying +101.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.36 (P10) to $36.15 (P90), with a median of $16.61.
MQ's current P/E of -144.3x compares to the industry median of 20.7x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -796.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover MQ with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $4.75 (range: $4.50 — $5.00), implying +9.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (13), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MQ.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.