Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$111.44
→
Intrinsic$79.45
-29%
$48.15$79.45$138.96
Market implies 17% growth for 5 years
KMB trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $111, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (17%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $48 → Bull $139. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $99 | $109 | $120 | $133 |
| 10% | $64 | $72 | $79 | $88 |
| 12% | $45 | $51 | $57 | $63 |
| 14% | $33 | $38 | $42 | $47 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($139) offers 25% upside at 13% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 10% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($48) implies 57% downside at 8% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 17% growth expectations vs 10% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 29% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
Loading charts...
5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.81B
Year 2$2.00B
Year 3$2.21B
Year 4$2.44B
Year 5$2.70B
Terminal$39.69B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate10.5%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.64BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.