MODEL VERDICT
CMS Energy Corporation 5.875% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2079 (CMSD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $23.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $23.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $23.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $23.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $22.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $79.68 | +242.3% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $59.05 | +153.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $77.88 | +234.5% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $77.69 | +233.7% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $60.39 | +159.4% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $77.93 | +234.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $76.78 | +229.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $79.67 | +242.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $60.46 | +159.7% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $14 | $18 | $25 | $33 | $40 |
| Conservative (5%) | $15 | $19 | $26 | $33 | $41 |
| Base Case (6.0%) | $15 | $19 | $26 | $34 | $41 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $15 | $19 | $27 | $34 | $42 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.20 | 7.86 | 5.77 | 11.43 | 2.09 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.39 | 14.55 | 12.77 | 15.50 | 1.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.97 | 8.91 | 8.58 | 9.41 | 0.31 |
| P/FFO | 3.62 | 3.31 | 3.08 | 4.64 | 0.65 |
| P/TBV | 1.03 | 0.90 | 0.72 | 1.54 | 0.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.03 | 0.90 | 0.72 | 1.54 | 0.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.76 | 1.25 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates CMSD's fair value at $60.46 vs the current price of $23.28, implying +159.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $60.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $53.54 (P10) to $61.04 (P90), with a median of $57.30.
CMSD's current P/E of 6.6x compares to the industry median of 22.6x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -70.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for CMSD.
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CMSD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2350.0% to approximately $29. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.