MODEL VERDICT
Lionheart Holdings (CUB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $9.34 | -12.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 41 industry peers | $14.16 | +32.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 47 bank peers | $14.72 | +37.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $10.69 | +0.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.86 | +57.9% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 48× | 52× | 56× (Current) | 60× | 64× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $13 |
| Conservative (16%) | $11 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Base Case (24.2%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Bull Case (33%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates CUB's fair value at $16.86 vs the current price of $10.68, implying +57.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.20 (P10) to $16.95 (P90), with a median of $12.27.
CUB's current P/E of 56.2x compares to the industry median of 49.2x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +14.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
11 analysts cover CUB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CUB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.