MODEL VERDICT
ACV Auctions Inc. (ACVA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $5.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $5.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $5.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $4.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $4.33 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $3.73 | -29.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $7.67 | +45.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $8.04 | +52.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $16.24 | +207.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $15.44 | +192.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $6.88 | +30.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.81 | +66.8% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 39.85 | 41.27 | 19.79 | 58.51 | 19.40 |
| P/TBV | 9.82 | 8.29 | 3.82 | 21.11 | 6.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.91 | 5.29 | 2.65 | 8.09 | 2.15 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.74 | 5.04 | 1.80 | 8.20 | 2.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACVA's fair value at $8.81 vs the current price of $5.28, implying +66.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.77 (P10) to $10.51 (P90), with a median of $8.60.
ACVA's current P/E of -13.5x compares to the industry median of 20.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -165.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover ACVA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $9.00 (range: $8.00 — $10.00), implying +70.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ACVA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.