MODEL VERDICT
Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $146.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $159.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $177.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $174.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $216.73 | Below threshold | -21.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $63.02 | -57.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $68.97 | -53.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $79.49 | -45.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $66.10 | -55.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $53.98 | -63.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $71.83 | -51.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $223.70 | +52.2% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 243.81 | 96.26 | 46.14 | 938.89 | 320.99 |
| P/FFO | 2003.55 | 1161.92 | 435.72 | 4413.02 | 2118.01 |
| P/TBV | 46.56 | 34.06 | 19.65 | 99.57 | 27.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 38.08 | 27.50 | 18.62 | 82.42 | 23.68 |
| P/S Ratio | 29.05 | 18.97 | 12.45 | 64.76 | 22.94 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates ZS's fair value at $223.70 vs the current price of $146.99, implying +52.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $223.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $67.92 (P10) to $480.38 (P90), with a median of $222.07.
ZS's current P/E of -544.4x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -2469.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
52 analysts cover ZS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $288.85 (range: $209.00 — $360.00), implying +96.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (42), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ZS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.