MODEL VERDICT
Zscaler, Inc. (ZS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $139.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $135.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $134.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $131.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $138.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $156.71 | +12.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $129.75 | -7.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $134.61 | -3.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $144.25 | +3.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $128.25 | -8.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $128.75 | -7.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $296.45 | +112.0% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 243.81 | 96.26 | 46.14 | 938.89 | 320.99 |
| P/FFO | 2003.55 | 1161.92 | 435.72 | 4413.02 | 2118.01 |
| P/TBV | 46.56 | 34.06 | 19.65 | 99.57 | 27.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 38.08 | 27.50 | 18.62 | 82.42 | 23.68 |
| P/S Ratio | 29.05 | 18.97 | 12.45 | 64.76 | 22.94 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates ZS's fair value at $296.45 vs the current price of $139.81, implying +112.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $296.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $122.86 (P10) to $553.51 (P90), with a median of $288.09.
ZS's current P/E of -517.8x compares to the industry median of 35.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -1577.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
52 analysts cover ZS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $277.18 (range: $160.00 — $360.00), implying +98.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (40), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ZS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.