MODEL VERDICT
Dolby Laboratories, Inc. (DLB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $57.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $64.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $64.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $63.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $60.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $164.29 | +185.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $61.78 | +7.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $79.50 | +38.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $76.75 | +33.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $56.59 | -1.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $85.34 | +48.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $6.27 | -89.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $70.98 | +23.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $58.05 | +1.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $77.78 | +35.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $76.76 | +33.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $95.34 | +65.9% | 100% | 94 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $48 | $53 | $59 | $64 | $69 |
| Conservative (5%) | $50 | $55 | $61 | $66 | $72 |
| Base Case (3.1%) | $49 | $54 | $59 | $65 | $70 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $49 | $55 | $60 | $66 | $71 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.27 | 32.06 | 24.51 | 43.97 | 7.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.99 | 24.83 | 19.99 | 37.55 | 6.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.48 | 20.16 | 15.40 | 28.90 | 4.30 |
| P/FCF | 26.88 | 25.57 | 14.55 | 36.38 | 7.02 |
| P/FFO | 24.23 | 24.53 | 17.70 | 31.03 | 4.52 |
| P/TBV | 4.46 | 4.65 | 3.67 | 5.13 | 0.55 |
| P/AFFO | 28.87 | 29.49 | 19.73 | 39.07 | 6.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.32 | 3.20 | 2.38 | 4.10 | 0.57 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.43 | 5.97 | 4.64 | 8.61 | 1.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DLB's fair value at $95.34 vs the current price of $57.46, implying +65.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $95.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $81.15 (P10) to $114.41 (P90), with a median of $97.73.
DLB's current P/E of 21.9x compares to the industry median of 30.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -27.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.3x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
17 analysts cover DLB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $85.00 (range: $85.00 — $85.00), implying +47.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (6), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DLB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6610.0% to approximately $95. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.