MODEL VERDICT
Photronics, Inc. (PLAB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $50.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $52.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $48.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $45.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $44.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $91.72 | +82.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $154.21 | +207.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $150.91 | +200.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $60.15 | +19.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $203.37 | +305.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $66.97 | +33.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $134.51 | +168.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $80.65 | +60.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $66.16 | +31.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $140.96 | +181.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $55.38 | +10.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $98.26 | +95.9% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $47 | $52 | $57 | $62 | $67 |
| Conservative (22%) | $50 | $56 | $61 | $67 | $73 |
| Base Case (34.4%) | $55 | $61 | $67 | $74 | $80 |
| Bull Case (46%) | $60 | $67 | $73 | $80 | $87 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.97 | 15.45 | 8.68 | 26.71 | 6.39 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.77 | 6.43 | 3.12 | 17.96 | 5.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.36 | 4.39 | 2.58 | 6.88 | 1.54 |
| P/FCF | 16.56 | 11.30 | 6.32 | 32.14 | 10.76 |
| P/FFO | 7.56 | 8.01 | 5.17 | 9.39 | 1.66 |
| P/TBV | 1.12 | 1.17 | 0.76 | 1.52 | 0.24 |
| P/AFFO | 29.08 | 21.81 | 11.87 | 74.11 | 23.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.11 | 1.17 | 0.76 | 1.52 | 0.24 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.76 | 1.76 | 1.20 | 2.26 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PLAB's fair value at $98.26 vs the current price of $50.16, implying +95.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $98.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $77.14 (P10) to $96.26 (P90), with a median of $86.46.
PLAB's current P/E of 22.0x compares to the industry median of 66.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -66.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover PLAB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $49.33 (range: $45.00 — $55.00), implying -1.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (2), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PLAB trades at the 1060th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PLAB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 430.0% to approximately $52. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.