MODEL VERDICT
DT Midstream, Inc. (DTM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $147.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $134.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $134.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $131.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $135.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $80.10 | -45.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $83.29 | -43.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $82.13 | -44.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $66.67 | -54.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $73.76 | -50.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $55.32 | -62.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $14.46 | -90.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $50.15 | -66.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $59.66 | -59.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $81.30 | -44.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $66.67 | -54.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $112.70 | -23.6% | 100% | 66 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $123 | $136 | $150 | $164 | $177 |
| Conservative (5%) | $126 | $140 | $153 | $167 | $181 |
| Base Case (6.6%) | $128 | $142 | $156 | $170 | $184 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $130 | $145 | $159 | $174 | $188 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.64 | 15.14 | 13.91 | 27.62 | 7.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.44 | 14.22 | 13.16 | 20.58 | 3.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.01 | 13.56 | 12.59 | 18.49 | 2.80 |
| P/FCF | 55.77 | 23.69 | 10.74 | 205.50 | 83.93 |
| P/FFO | 12.44 | 9.61 | 9.15 | 17.13 | 4.16 |
| P/TBV | 3.91 | 3.24 | 2.91 | 5.49 | 1.14 |
| P/AFFO | 30.55 | 33.30 | 13.22 | 42.35 | 14.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.65 | 1.29 | 1.15 | 2.51 | 0.60 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.40 | 5.84 | 5.53 | 9.97 | 2.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DTM's fair value at $112.70 vs the current price of $147.46, implying -23.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $112.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $69.15 (P10) to $128.80 (P90), with a median of $90.83.
DTM's current P/E of 33.3x compares to the industry median of 18.5x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +79.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.6x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover DTM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $144.56 (range: $127.00 — $166.00), implying -2.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DTM trades at the 8890th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DTM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -4.0σ, meaning margins are 4.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (67.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 950.0% to approximately $161. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.