MODEL VERDICT
Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $254.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $240.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $235.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $238.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $243.09 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $134.26 | -47.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $165.69 | -34.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $138.01 | -45.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $243.86 | -4.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $155.69 | -38.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $235.51 | -7.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $395.83 | +55.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $355.63 | +39.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $137.89 | -45.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $243.85 | -4.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $202.65 | -20.3% | 100% | 94 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $230 | $248 | $266 | $284 | $301 |
| Conservative (7%) | $236 | $254 | $272 | $290 | $309 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $244 | $262 | $281 | $300 | $319 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $251 | $271 | $290 | $309 | $329 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.85 | 22.68 | 18.94 | 31.10 | 5.21 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.91 | 18.41 | 12.36 | 58.51 | 17.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.82 | 9.23 | 6.41 | 14.63 | 3.06 |
| P/FCF | 20.37 | 13.18 | 6.64 | 57.76 | 19.39 |
| P/FFO | 11.36 | 12.13 | 7.57 | 14.61 | 2.58 |
| P/TBV | 9.11 | 7.56 | 1.35 | 25.64 | 8.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.78 | 3.41 | 1.04 | 12.40 | 4.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.32 | 1.09 | 0.68 | 2.38 | 0.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRGP's fair value at $202.65 vs the current price of $254.28, implying -20.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $202.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $164.63 (P10) to $245.42 (P90), with a median of $201.95.
TRGP's current P/E of 29.8x compares to the industry median of 16.2x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +84.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.8x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
33 analysts cover TRGP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $237.70 (range: $207.00 — $268.00), implying -6.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (27), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TRGP trades at the 8330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TRGP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (8.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3200.0% to approximately $173. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.