MODEL VERDICT
Excelerate Energy, Inc. (EE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $34.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $33.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $34.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $33.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $34.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $25.52 | -26.0% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $15083.07 | +43657.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $5363.81 | +15460.8% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $29.60 | -14.1% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $57190.50 | +165813.8% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $94.80 | +175.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $24.79 | -28.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6565.96 | +18948.3% | 100% | 56 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $30 | $33 | $35 | $38 | $40 |
| Conservative (5%) | $31 | $34 | $36 | $39 | $42 |
| Base Case (-4.2%) | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 | $38 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $28 | $30 | $33 | $35 | $37 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.82 | 17.62 | 8.21 | 23.82 | 7.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.14 | 4.38 | 2.94 | 5.11 | 1.10 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.90 | 2.31 | 0.00 | 2.98 | 1.35 |
| P/FFO | 3.21 | 3.50 | 0.00 | 5.85 | 2.48 |
| P/TBV | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.22 | 0.53 | 0.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.22 | 0.41 | 0.09 |
| Div Yield | 2.49 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 9.91 | 4.95 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.92 | 0.39 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates EE's fair value at $6565.96 vs the current price of $34.47, implying +18948.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6565.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5235.34 (P10) to $7855.48 (P90), with a median of $6525.77.
EE's current P/E of 26.9x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +35.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.8x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
15 analysts cover EE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $42.00 (range: $36.00 — $50.00), implying +21.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (7), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (22), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 17.5% is 12.8 percentage points above the 4-year average (4.8%), with a Z-score of +3.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$6. (2) Multiple compression: EE trades at the 1110th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.8×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +3.6σ, meaning margins are 3.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (4.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8300.0% to approximately $6. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.