MODEL VERDICT
Elme Communities (ELME)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield 17 industry peers | $12.75 | +466.7% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 22 industry peers | $8.61 | +282.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $11.57 | +414.2% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $5.78 | +156.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.06 | +569.1% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 70.26 | 69.34 | 59.15 | 82.30 | 11.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.26 | 18.00 | 9.62 | 29.66 | 6.75 |
| P/FCF | 19.80 | 17.97 | 12.42 | 32.58 | 7.08 |
| P/FFO | 17.09 | 16.21 | 4.47 | 35.61 | 10.72 |
| P/TBV | 1.42 | 1.35 | 1.11 | 1.70 | 0.25 |
| P/AFFO | 21.44 | 21.28 | 4.47 | 38.69 | 14.57 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.42 | 1.35 | 1.11 | 1.70 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.61 | 7.43 | 5.40 | 13.26 | 3.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates ELME's fair value at $15.06 vs the current price of $2.25, implying +569.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.99 (P10) to $25.05 (P90), with a median of $16.70.
ELME's current P/E of -15.0x compares to the industry median of 44.9x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -133.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover ELME with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $19.00 (range: $19.00 — $19.00), implying +744.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ELME.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.