MODEL VERDICT
Entravision Communications Corporation (EVC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $3.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $3.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $3.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $3.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 6, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $3.46 | Below threshold | -12.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $8.30 | +116.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $0.39 | -89.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $0.38 | -90.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $8.01 | +109.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $3.66 | -4.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $5.45 | +42.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $0.39 | -89.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.36 | -12.3% | 100% | 79 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $4 | $5 |
| Conservative (7%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $4 | $5 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.35 | 20.55 | 14.65 | 22.86 | 4.23 |
| EV/EBIT | 66.50 | 30.47 | 10.69 | 194.35 | 86.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 82.04 | 15.28 | 7.86 | 346.31 | 148.00 |
| P/FCF | 23.50 | 7.66 | 3.19 | 75.99 | 29.99 |
| P/FFO | 16.91 | 14.42 | 9.62 | 29.16 | 8.80 |
| P/AFFO | 27.26 | 13.02 | 12.99 | 55.76 | 24.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.85 | 1.45 | 0.75 | 4.82 | 1.41 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.58 | 1.30 | 0.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates EVC's fair value at $3.36 vs the current price of $3.83, implying -12.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.97 (P10) to $4.04 (P90), with a median of $3.49.
EVC's current P/E of 19.1x compares to the industry median of 41.5x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -53.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.4x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover EVC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EVC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.