MODEL VERDICT
Graco Inc. (GGG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $79.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $81.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $86.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $85.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $87.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $65.25 | -17.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $64.56 | -18.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $84.65 | +6.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $89.79 | +13.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $79.05 | -0.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $105.99 | +33.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $70.03 | -11.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $47.95 | -39.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $39.52 | -50.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $90.57 | +14.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $90.34 | +14.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $85.89 | +8.5% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $70 | $77 | $83 | $90 | $96 |
| Conservative (6%) | $72 | $79 | $85 | $92 | $98 |
| Base Case (9.9%) | $74 | $81 | $88 | $95 | $102 |
| Bull Case (13%) | $77 | $84 | $91 | $98 | $105 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.57 | 29.51 | 25.29 | 37.68 | 4.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.85 | 23.48 | 19.83 | 31.82 | 4.14 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.02 | 20.04 | 17.87 | 27.52 | 3.38 |
| P/FCF | 37.25 | 32.04 | 21.74 | 65.99 | 14.48 |
| P/FFO | 25.50 | 25.37 | 22.04 | 32.33 | 3.76 |
| P/TBV | 10.96 | 8.66 | 7.80 | 16.09 | 3.72 |
| P/AFFO | 34.35 | 35.73 | 23.77 | 39.68 | 5.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.21 | 6.72 | 5.23 | 9.69 | 1.69 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.48 | 6.80 | 5.42 | 7.54 | 0.82 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GGG's fair value at $85.89 vs the current price of $79.19, implying +8.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $85.89 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $76.58 (P10) to $89.91 (P90), with a median of $83.17.
GGG's current P/E of 25.7x compares to the industry median of 27.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -6.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
20 analysts cover GGG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $95.67 (range: $92.00 — $100.00), implying +20.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GGG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3350.0% to approximately $106. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.