MODEL VERDICT
Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $259.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $220.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $212.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $204.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $207.03 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $225.49 | -13.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $128.40 | -50.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $91.57 | -64.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $142.87 | -44.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $100.86 | -61.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $132.42 | -48.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $236.35 | -8.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $259.02 | -0.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $91.26 | -64.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $142.87 | -44.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $163.99 | -36.8% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 80× | 88× | 96× (Current) | 104× | 112× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $220 | $241 | $263 | $285 | $307 |
| Conservative (5%) | $226 | $249 | $271 | $294 | $316 |
| Base Case (-13.3%) | $187 | $205 | $224 | $243 | $261 |
| Bull Case (-18%) | $177 | $194 | $212 | $230 | $247 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.20 | 39.52 | 18.57 | 50.70 | 11.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.96 | 24.63 | 14.16 | 32.83 | 7.10 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.24 | 17.28 | 11.04 | 29.25 | 6.62 |
| P/FCF | 33.46 | 27.82 | 15.48 | 75.08 | 21.45 |
| P/FFO | 23.88 | 21.69 | 12.86 | 36.15 | 8.51 |
| P/TBV | 75.51 | 46.88 | 16.27 | 170.74 | 64.75 |
| P/AFFO | 32.59 | 33.33 | 15.49 | 43.87 | 10.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.52 | 3.75 | 2.75 | 9.95 | 3.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.18 | 2.18 | 1.43 | 6.05 | 1.93 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates GNRC's fair value at $163.99 vs the current price of $259.34, implying -36.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $163.99 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $133.98 (P10) to $172.70 (P90), with a median of $153.06.
GNRC's current P/E of 96.4x compares to the industry median of 34.0x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +183.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
39 analysts cover GNRC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $271.22 (range: $195.00 — $325.00), implying +4.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GNRC trades at the 9380th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (35.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GNRC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1410.0% to approximately $296. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.