MODEL VERDICT
Gaotu Techedu Inc. (GOTU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $1.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $1.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $2.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $1.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $1.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $2.54 | +30.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $4.86 | +150.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $26.52 | +1267.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $24.76 | +1176.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $2.51 | +29.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.57 | +290.1% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 16.54 | 5.61 | 3.83 | 58.22 | 23.45 |
| P/FFO | 23.41 | 28.82 | 11.05 | 30.35 | 10.73 |
| P/TBV | 1.53 | 0.45 | 0.26 | 4.41 | 1.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.52 | 0.44 | 0.26 | 4.41 | 1.83 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.19 | 0.42 | 0.12 | 3.25 | 1.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates GOTU's fair value at $7.57 vs the current price of $1.94, implying +290.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.83 (P10) to $10.59 (P90), with a median of $8.57.
GOTU's current P/E of -4.8x compares to the industry median of 15.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -131.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover GOTU with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $2.94 (range: $2.94 — $2.94), implying +51.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (4), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GOTU.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.