MODEL VERDICT
Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $208.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $205.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $203.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $204.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $174.05 | Below threshold | +19.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $328.74 | +57.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $211.46 | +1.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $95.18 | -54.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $77.47 | -62.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $163.60 | -21.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $147.07 | -29.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $99.41 | -52.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $240.82 | +15.4% | 100% | 59 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.58 | 3.62 | 2.00 | 11.10 | 4.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.58 | 4.01 | 3.20 | 12.52 | 5.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.19 | 2.60 | 2.23 | 45.32 | 21.42 |
| P/FCF | 11.36 | 11.54 | 5.38 | 16.97 | 5.01 |
| P/FFO | 14.78 | 3.02 | 1.41 | 51.68 | 24.63 |
| P/TBV | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.14 | 2.44 | 0.54 |
| P/AFFO | 11.34 | 4.97 | 2.01 | 27.06 | 13.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.14 | 2.44 | 0.54 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.90 | 1.69 | 0.64 | 3.58 | 1.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates GPOR's fair value at $240.82 vs the current price of $208.66, implying +15.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $240.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $156.59 (P10) to $432.91 (P90), with a median of $253.45.
GPOR's current P/E of -14.2x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -199.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.6x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover GPOR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $238.25 (range: $200.00 — $264.00), implying +14.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GPOR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.