MODEL VERDICT
Grindr Inc. (GRND) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $11.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $11.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $10.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $10.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $13.22 | Below threshold | -20.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $11.63 | +2.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $13.22 | +16.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $10.44 | -8.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $11.89 | +4.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $8.34 | -26.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $6.71 | -41.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $7.74 | -32.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $10.45 | -8.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.24 | +16.4% | 100% | 63 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 45.85 | 35.94 | 34.78 | 66.82 | 18.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.11 | 23.66 | 21.26 | 31.84 | 4.75 |
| P/FCF | 37.07 | 40.64 | 16.43 | 50.56 | 15.70 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.35 | 7.50 | 3.80 | 10.62 | 3.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates GRND's fair value at $13.24 vs the current price of $11.38, implying +16.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.67 (P10) to $15.38 (P90), with a median of $12.99.
GRND's current P/E of -15.4x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -158.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover GRND with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.00 (range: $14.00 — $14.00), implying +23.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GRND.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.