MODEL VERDICT
Groupon, Inc. (GRPN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $12.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $11.86 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $4.13 | -72.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $7.47 | -49.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $10.66 | -28.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $5.43 | -63.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $11.48 | -22.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $16.47 | +10.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $15.79 | +6.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $15.44 | +3.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $222.69 | +1395.5% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 54.10 | 58.63 | 6.57 | 97.10 | 45.43 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.97 | 12.60 | 6.71 | 24.07 | 6.65 |
| P/FCF | 2091.82 | 14.23 | 11.91 | 6249.34 | 3600.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.61 | 10.09 | 3.43 | 29.22 | 10.51 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.43 | 1.42 | 0.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates GRPN's fair value at $222.69 vs the current price of $14.89, implying +1395.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $222.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.66 (P10) to $729.64 (P90), with a median of $229.99.
GRPN's current P/E of -7.2x compares to the industry median of 22.7x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -131.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
46 analysts cover GRPN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $25.25 (range: $12.00 — $30.00), implying +69.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (22), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GRPN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.