MODEL VERDICT
Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $12.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $13.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $12.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $12.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $16.49 | Below threshold | -21.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $8.69 | -31.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 24 industry peers | $11.31 | -10.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $11.32 | -10.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 20 industry peers | $1.31 | -89.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $8.78 | -30.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $34.19 | +170.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $37.89 | +200.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $11.32 | -10.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $178.82 | +1317.0% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 52.04 | 52.45 | 6.57 | 97.10 | 45.26 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.57 | 10.15 | 6.71 | 16.33 | 4.02 |
| P/FCF | 2092.95 | 17.62 | 11.91 | 6249.34 | 3599.53 |
| P/FFO | 12.54 | 16.26 | 4.05 | 17.31 | 7.37 |
| P/AFFO | 74.54 | 107.96 | 5.59 | 110.06 | 59.71 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.46 | 7.42 | 3.43 | 29.22 | 9.81 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.43 | 0.97 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates GRPN's fair value at $178.82 vs the current price of $12.62, implying +1317.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $178.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.90 (P10) to $605.22 (P90), with a median of $193.74.
GRPN's current P/E of -8.4x compares to the industry median of 17.8x (19 peers in the group). This represents a -146.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
46 analysts cover GRPN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $25.25 (range: $12.00 — $30.00), implying +100.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (21), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GRPN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.