MODEL VERDICT
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, competitive benchmarking & quality-adjusted fair value
The market is pricing Warrior Met Coal, Inc. at a 12.12% premium to its peer-implied fair value.
6 curated peers matched by core operations and segment-adjacent attributes
| Ticker | Company | Market Cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMR | Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. | $2.36B | -39.11x | 14.35x |
| SXC | SunCoke Energy, Inc. | $733M | -16.62x | 6.05x |
| BTU | Peabody Energy Corporation | $3.02B | -57.67x | 7.02x |
| ARLP | Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. | $3.03B | 9.72x | 5.02x |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $51.62B | 32.02x | 6.63x |
| NRP | Natural Resource Partners L.P. | $1.34B | 10.04x | 8.67x |
3 valuation metrics · peer-median based
| Multiple | Current | Peer Median | vs Peers | Implied Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/EPrice paid for next year's expected earnings. | 13.97x | 27.05x | Discount -48.34% | $175.35 |
| P/EPrice paid for current earnings. | 83.87x | 10.04x | Premium +735.46% | $26.16 |
| EV/EBITDAEnterprise value versus operating cash earnings proxy. | 20.15x | 6.82x | Premium +195.38% | $37.91 |
How the model derives the final fair value from peer baselines and quality metrics
Premium: The stock is trading at a 13.79% premium to its quality-adjusted fair value of $79.60. The market is pricing the stock 12.12% above our model's estimate.
Quality metrics trail the peer group, warranting a discount.
Quality adjustments are capped at ±15% (up to ±20% for financial services) to prevent runaway premiums. Based on trailing twelve months and multi-year CAGR data where available.
How current multiples rank vs 8 years of the stock’s own history
| Multiple | Current | Historical Median | Percentile | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E7 years of data | 83.87x | 6.63x | 100th | Above historical norm |
| EV/EBITDA8 years of data | 20.15x | 3.66x | 100th | Above historical norm |
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. currently trades near the highest valuation levels observed during the last 8 years.
Wall Street target prices — 24 analysts
Model-identified caveats to consider
HCC looks slightly expensive versus peers using AI-curated peers, with relative upside of -12.1%.
Answers to common questions about HCC's relative valuation and our methodology.
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s fair value of $79.60 is the price at which the stock would trade if valued at the same multiples as its 6-company peer group, adjusted for differences in business quality. At $90.58, the stock trades at a -12.12% premium to fair value. This is a reference point, not a price target.
A core set of peers matched by business model was augmented with segment-adjacent companies sharing key business attributes, bringing the total to 6 clean peers. Only companies with usable financial data are included.
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. has strengths in net debt / ebitda, and challenges in 3y revenue growth, 3y eps growth, roic, fcf margin, and a quality score that warrants a 7.2% discount relative to its peer group. The Quality Adjustment section breaks down each driver.
No. This page provides an automated quantitative comparison of Warrior Met Coal, Inc. against its peers. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Valuation is only one factor in an investment decision — it does not account for growth catalysts, management quality, regulatory risk, or your personal financial situation.
Look at the Historical Context to see where current multiples sit versus the stock's own history. Review the Risk Factors section for model-identified caveats. Compare the Analyst Consensus to our model output for another perspective. Valuation is only one dimension — growth trajectory, competitive position, and market conditions all matter.
Valuation data is refreshed weekly based on the latest financial filings, market prices, and analyst estimates. Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s fair value, peer multiples, and quality scores will shift over time as new earnings are reported and stock prices change.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Fair value estimates are model outputs under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.