MODEL VERDICT
SunCoke Energy, Inc. (SXC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $6.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $6.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $6.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $6.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $6.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $4.17 | -40.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $10.93 | +56.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $4.12 | -40.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $1.03 | -85.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $41.67 | +497.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $45.02 | +545.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $3.68 | -47.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.91 | -0.8% | 100% | 69 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.80 | 12.67 | 7.25 | 108.75 | 43.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.81 | 10.08 | 7.63 | 13.18 | 2.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.70 | 4.62 | 3.96 | 6.08 | 0.77 |
| P/FCF | 7.31 | 6.52 | 4.10 | 14.55 | 3.67 |
| P/FFO | 3.86 | 3.68 | 2.63 | 5.63 | 1.14 |
| P/TBV | 1.16 | 1.17 | 0.78 | 1.48 | 0.23 |
| P/AFFO | 7.99 | 6.72 | 4.35 | 14.45 | 3.68 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.08 | 1.03 | 0.72 | 1.41 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.27 | 0.47 | 0.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SXC's fair value at $6.91 vs the current price of $6.97, implying -0.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.46 (P10) to $9.20 (P90), with a median of $7.29.
SXC's current P/E of -13.4x compares to the industry median of 30.9x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -143.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.8x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover SXC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $9.00 (range: $9.00 — $9.00), implying +29.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SXC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.