MODEL VERDICT
Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $24.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $22.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $21.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $21.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $21.77 | Pending | -2.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $7.48 | -70.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $3.12 | -87.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $48.70 | +95.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $51.64 | +106.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $44.90 | +79.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $38.16 | +52.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $3.30 | -86.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $49.05 | +96.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.03 | +0.2% | 100% | 59 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 174× | 191× | 208× (Current) | 225× | 242× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Conservative (7%) | $22 | $24 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $30 | $32 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $24 | $26 | $28 | $31 | $33 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates IBTA's fair value at $25.03 vs the current price of $24.97, implying +0.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.96 (P10) to $42.21 (P90), with a median of $32.11.
IBTA's current P/E of 208.1x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +701.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
9 analysts cover IBTA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $26.00 (range: $26.00 — $26.00), implying +4.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IBTA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (1.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6970.0% to approximately $8. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.