MODEL VERDICT
Perion Network Ltd. (PERI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $10.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $10.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $10.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $10.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $9.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $25.92 | +138.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $2.08 | -80.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $8.71 | -19.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $10.92 | +0.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $24.79 | +127.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $21.70 | +99.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $8.56 | -21.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $88.07 | +709.4% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.83 | 18.39 | 12.28 | 35.36 | 10.78 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.44 | 14.06 | 9.24 | 52.95 | 17.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.40 | 14.67 | 6.13 | 86.53 | 28.29 |
| P/FCF | 904.13 | 10.57 | 3.77 | 6264.74 | 2363.81 |
| P/FFO | 17.53 | 14.45 | 7.25 | 41.39 | 11.28 |
| P/TBV | 9.59 | 4.05 | 0.60 | 49.25 | 17.56 |
| P/AFFO | 26.69 | 18.62 | 7.66 | 99.73 | 32.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.48 | 1.95 | 0.58 | 2.15 | 0.72 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.34 | 1.12 | 0.63 | 2.08 | 0.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates PERI's fair value at $88.07 vs the current price of $10.88, implying +709.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $88.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.07 (P10) to $357.92 (P90), with a median of $90.13.
PERI's current P/E of -57.3x compares to the industry median of 29.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -292.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.8x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover PERI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.00 (range: $14.00 — $14.00), implying +28.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PERI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.