MODEL VERDICT
Summit Hotel Properties, Inc. (INN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.74 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $12.47 | +140.3% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 5 REIT peers | $10.14 | +95.4% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $14.98 | +188.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $12.70 | +144.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $11.14 | +114.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $14.08 | +171.3% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $250.61 | +4728.8% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 191.49 | 36.05 | 18.98 | 519.42 | 284.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.37 | 27.58 | 18.36 | 34.61 | 6.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1420.86 | 10.15 | 9.15 | 9864.23 | 3723.19 |
| P/FCF | 10.24 | 9.96 | 4.62 | 15.44 | 4.30 |
| P/FFO | 8.46 | 5.01 | 3.67 | 25.25 | 8.30 |
| P/TBV | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.42 | 1.04 | 0.24 |
| P/AFFO | 9.35 | 9.55 | 7.86 | 10.45 | 1.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.41 | 1.03 | 0.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.88 | 1.24 | 0.71 | 4.00 | 1.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates INN's fair value at $250.61 vs the current price of $5.19, implying +4728.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $250.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.02 (P10) to $1192.61 (P90), with a median of $273.11.
INN's current P/E of -23.6x compares to the industry median of 26.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -190.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 191.5x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover INN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $5.17 (range: $4.50 — $6.00), implying -0.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (5), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for INN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.