MODEL VERDICT
Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $25.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $25.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $24.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $24.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $23.58 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $64.78 | +150.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $4.17 | -83.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $18.70 | -27.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $28.18 | +8.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.88 | +3.8% | 100% | 77 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.81 | 14.05 | 7.70 | 15.42 | 3.12 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.63 | 12.91 | 7.04 | 13.44 | 2.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.73 | 13.89 | 9.17 | 17.65 | 3.10 |
| P/FCF | 9.29 | 7.98 | 7.14 | 16.20 | 3.34 |
| P/FFO | 7.59 | 7.41 | 5.84 | 9.15 | 1.12 |
| P/TBV | 11.37 | 7.23 | 5.00 | 19.85 | 7.34 |
| P/AFFO | 8.55 | 8.96 | 6.21 | 10.68 | 1.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.92 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.45 | 1.37 | 1.29 | 1.87 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates IVZ's fair value at $26.88 vs the current price of $25.89, implying +3.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.29 (P10) to $31.89 (P90), with a median of $26.98.
IVZ's current P/E of -16.2x compares to the industry median of 18.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -187.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.8x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover IVZ with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $29.72 (range: $26.00 — $34.50), implying +14.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (16), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for IVZ.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.