Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock (JCAP)
Valuation Overview•Is Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Moderate quality score of 66/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
JCAP exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with highly explosive earnings growth (44.8% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 51.4% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $176.4M | +41.5% | — | — | — | |
| EBITDA | $81.1M | — | +143.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $37.6M | +78.5% | +61.8% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.68 | +245.9% | +44.8% | +38.7% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $39.6M | +65.3% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 68.1% | 70.9% | 79.7% | 87.0% |
| Operating Margin | 51.4% | 51.1% | 44.8% | 1.6% |
| Net Margin | 27.5% | 29.8% | 72.4% | 69.7% |
| FCF Margin | 36.6% | 39.3% | -236.6% | -895.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.80 | $0.73 | -8.8% | ||
| Q2'26 | $0.67 | $0.61 | -9.2% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.71 | $0.65 | -8.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.64 | $0.74 | +15.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.88 | $0.81 | -8.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | — | $0.87 | — | ||
| Q2'24 | — | $0.55 | — | ||
| Q1'24 | — | $0.56 | — |
Total return is -0.4% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -22.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -18.6% | -26.0% | — |
| 1Y | -0.4% | -22.6% | +5.2% |
| 3YCAGR | -0.1% | -19.6% | +5.2% |
| 5YCAGR | -0.1% | -11.9% | +5.2% |
| 10YCAGR | -0.0% | -13.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock (JCAP) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock appears Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $22.56 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $26.00 (implying +48.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 66/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 12.6%.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock pays a 12.1% dividend yield, covered by a 34% payout ratio with 1 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +41.5% 1Y revenue growth and +245.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 9 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 20% of recent quarters with a -3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +48.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock include: -33.6% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.00x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.