MODEL VERDICT
J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $87.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $84.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $80.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $79.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $82.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $43.79 | -49.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $102.01 | +17.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $47.61 | -45.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $55.60 | -36.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $59.63 | -31.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $88.97 | +2.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $166.98 | +91.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $129.53 | +48.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $76.46 | -12.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $63.48 | -27.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $55.21 | -36.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $106.42 | +22.3% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $82 | $90 | $97 | $105 | $112 |
| Conservative (19%) | $88 | $96 | $104 | $111 | $119 |
| Base Case (28.5%) | $95 | $104 | $112 | $121 | $130 |
| Bull Case (38%) | $102 | $112 | $121 | $130 | $140 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 59.51 | 40.97 | 26.90 | 161.84 | 46.60 |
| EV/EBIT | 45.75 | 29.70 | 20.75 | 130.99 | 38.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.32 | 19.95 | 11.57 | 40.19 | 9.10 |
| P/FCF | 47.91 | 43.24 | 21.48 | 86.14 | 23.60 |
| P/FFO | 25.42 | 24.37 | 12.72 | 41.44 | 9.01 |
| P/TBV | 4.94 | 5.12 | 2.90 | 5.95 | 1.02 |
| P/AFFO | 98.86 | 58.78 | 31.52 | 220.13 | 84.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.32 | 3.54 | 1.83 | 4.19 | 0.73 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.24 | 2.08 | 1.12 | 2.94 | 0.65 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates JJSF's fair value at $106.42 vs the current price of $87.03, implying +22.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $106.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $83.49 (P10) to $125.32 (P90), with a median of $103.52.
JJSF's current P/E of 25.9x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +82.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 59.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover JJSF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JJSF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 17430.0% to approximately $239. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.