Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$19.12
→
Intrinsic$16.35
-15%
$9.87$16.35$28.64
Market implies 23% growth for 5 years
KVUE appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $19, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (23%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $10 → Bull $29. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 |
| 10% | $13 | $15 | $16 | $18 |
| 12% | $9 | $10 | $12 | $13 |
| 14% | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($29) offers 50% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($10) implies 48% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.60B
Year 2$1.92B
Year 3$2.31B
Year 4$2.77B
Year 5$3.32B
Terminal$48.88B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.33BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.