MODEL VERDICT
Lands' End, Inc. (LE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $12.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $10.87 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $14.23 | +24.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $38.34 | +236.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $3.74 | -67.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $10.67 | -6.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $33.06 | +190.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $17.48 | +53.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $56.87 | +398.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $30.50 | +167.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $3.75 | -67.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $9.58 | -16.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.02 | +58.1% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 53× | 58× | 63× (Current) | 68× | 73× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $12 | $13 |
| Conservative (5%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Base Case (-11.4%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Bull Case (-15%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 51.91 | 65.36 | 19.83 | 80.67 | 26.45 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.18 | 16.42 | 10.50 | 24.86 | 6.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.26 | 8.52 | 6.24 | 12.78 | 2.54 |
| P/FCF | 15.68 | 14.59 | 3.20 | 27.06 | 9.30 |
| P/FFO | 11.19 | 10.59 | 9.12 | 14.62 | 2.07 |
| P/TBV | 37.32 | 15.06 | 1.84 | 117.33 | 53.70 |
| P/AFFO | 71.21 | 47.06 | 13.98 | 186.16 | 67.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.51 | 1.63 | 0.66 | 1.91 | 0.43 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.16 | 0.49 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates LE's fair value at $18.02 vs the current price of $11.40, implying +58.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.51 (P10) to $22.16 (P90), with a median of $19.29.
LE's current P/E of 63.3x compares to the industry median of 20.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +204.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 51.9x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
3 analysts cover LE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.50 (range: $15.00 — $18.00), implying +44.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LE trades at the 7890th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (51.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (2.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 29340.0% to approximately $45. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.