MODEL VERDICT
Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. (LIND)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $22.95 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $20.57 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $18.67 | CURRENT | — |
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $21.10 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $18.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $1.33 | -94.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $13.56 | -40.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $16.37 | -28.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $5.87 | -74.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $20.06 | -12.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $15.49 | -32.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $10.44 | -54.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $16.32 | -28.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.50 | -36.8% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 69.50 | 51.74 | 28.02 | 146.50 | 52.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.89 | 15.07 | 11.08 | 18.36 | 3.03 |
| P/FFO | 96.84 | 26.28 | 19.07 | 315.73 | 145.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 20.52 | 6.74 | 5.80 | 49.03 | 24.69 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.15 | 1.05 | 0.95 | 10.34 | 3.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates LIND's fair value at $14.50 vs the current price of $22.95, implying -36.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.92 (P10) to $28.16 (P90), with a median of $19.83.
LIND's current P/E of -36.4x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -283.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover LIND with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $23.00 (range: $23.00 — $23.00), implying +0.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LIND.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.