MODEL VERDICT
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $265.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $265.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $285.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $282.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $276.94 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $312.67 | +17.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $243.91 | -8.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $324.70 | +22.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $87.00 | -67.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $215.29 | -18.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $67.45 | -74.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $81.61 | -69.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $109.45 | -58.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $325.62 | +22.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $86.87 | -67.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $268.96 | +1.3% | 100% | 86 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $211 | $244 | $276 | $308 | $341 |
| Conservative (7%) | $216 | $249 | $283 | $316 | $349 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $223 | $258 | $292 | $326 | $361 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $230 | $266 | $301 | $337 | $372 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.60 | 19.19 | 14.92 | 21.09 | 2.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.30 | 18.63 | 17.06 | 18.90 | 0.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.86 | 14.86 | 11.87 | 54.08 | 18.06 |
| P/FCF | 49.38 | 51.06 | 32.23 | 63.18 | 15.41 |
| P/FFO | 11.98 | 12.28 | 8.97 | 14.38 | 2.30 |
| P/TBV | 6.03 | 6.12 | 2.13 | 9.29 | 2.93 |
| P/AFFO | 149.65 | 115.90 | 53.24 | 279.81 | 117.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.07 | 4.39 | 1.83 | 8.32 | 2.67 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.95 | 3.90 | 1.43 | 12.64 | 3.86 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates RCL's fair value at $268.96 vs the current price of $265.55, implying +1.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $268.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $192.23 (P10) to $326.78 (P90), with a median of $255.46.
RCL's current P/E of 17.0x compares to the industry median of 20.8x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -18.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.6x over 4 years. Signal: Discount.
51 analysts cover RCL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $353.67 (range: $296.00 — $425.00), implying +33.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (24), Hold (21), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RCL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.