MODEL VERDICT
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $18.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $18.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $20.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $21.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $19.96 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $23.96 | +27.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $34.96 | +85.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $16.40 | -12.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $24.29 | +29.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $13.26 | -29.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $23.64 | +25.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $16.38 | -12.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.48 | +40.8% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
| Conservative (7%) | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $17 | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $17 | $19 | $21 | $23 | $26 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.85 | 19.21 | 13.58 | 51.38 | 17.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.65 | 17.08 | 15.48 | 24.95 | 4.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.71 | 10.80 | 9.00 | 12.25 | 1.35 |
| P/FFO | 7.44 | 7.53 | 6.54 | 8.16 | 0.79 |
| P/TBV | 6.11 | 4.13 | 1.72 | 16.79 | 6.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 17.69 | 4.64 | 1.49 | 74.91 | 26.94 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.32 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 11.70 | 3.97 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates NCLH's fair value at $26.48 vs the current price of $18.81, implying +40.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.25 (P10) to $30.38 (P90), with a median of $26.17.
NCLH's current P/E of 20.9x compares to the industry median of 18.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +14.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.8x over 4 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
37 analysts cover NCLH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $24.18 (range: $20.00 — $30.00), implying +28.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (20), Hold (15), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NCLH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.