MODEL VERDICT
Mesa Laboratories, Inc. (MLAB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $103.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $97.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $103.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $99.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $95.84 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $243.22 | +135.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $117.19 | +13.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $334.04 | +223.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $61.10 | -40.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $409.52 | +296.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $144.90 | +40.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $158.69 | +53.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $334.04 | +223.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $235.12 | +127.6% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 532.51 | 512.64 | 134.09 | 924.65 | 284.27 |
| EV/EBIT | 124.56 | 141.04 | 32.57 | 163.18 | 47.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 39.53 | 43.83 | 14.20 | 62.78 | 19.65 |
| P/FCF | 29.84 | 25.49 | 10.07 | 49.99 | 15.06 |
| P/FFO | 48.80 | 46.12 | 16.49 | 84.84 | 30.31 |
| P/AFFO | 54.83 | 51.75 | 19.03 | 94.42 | 32.62 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.30 | 4.14 | 1.43 | 9.04 | 2.58 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.48 | 4.81 | 1.77 | 12.55 | 4.39 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates MLAB's fair value at $235.12 vs the current price of $103.31, implying +127.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $235.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $197.63 (P10) to $280.72 (P90), with a median of $238.85.
MLAB's current P/E of -287.0x compares to the industry median of 41.2x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -795.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 532.5x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover MLAB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $94.00 (range: $94.00 — $94.00), implying -9.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MLAB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.