MODEL VERDICT
Littelfuse, Inc. (LFUS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $407.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $407.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $389.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $385.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $382.87 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $614.12 | +50.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $332.62 | -18.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $845.77 | +107.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $108.82 | -73.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $823.26 | +102.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $672.29 | +65.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $715.41 | +75.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $580.89 | +42.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $450.42 | +10.7% | 100% | 69 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.91 | 30.91 | 14.74 | 58.91 | 16.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 46.19 | 26.15 | 12.78 | 176.28 | 57.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.65 | 17.25 | 9.65 | 48.38 | 12.69 |
| P/FCF | 22.52 | 20.22 | 17.21 | 31.03 | 5.62 |
| P/FFO | 48.62 | 20.51 | 11.14 | 218.00 | 74.89 |
| P/TBV | 11.89 | 12.52 | 8.39 | 14.10 | 1.98 |
| P/AFFO | 27.59 | 27.43 | 14.12 | 38.13 | 9.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.06 | 2.71 | 2.44 | 4.14 | 0.70 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.09 | 2.84 | 2.19 | 4.33 | 0.74 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates LFUS's fair value at $450.42 vs the current price of $407.08, implying +10.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $450.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $433.27 (P10) to $644.24 (P90), with a median of $536.84.
LFUS's current P/E of -140.4x compares to the industry median of 72.2x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -294.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.9x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover LFUS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $400.00 (range: $360.00 — $450.00), implying -1.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LFUS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.