MODEL VERDICT
MP Materials Corp. (MP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $66.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $60.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $60.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $59.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $55.24 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $3.83 | -94.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $5.74 | -91.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $4.40 | -93.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.16 | -90.8% | 100% | 43 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 73.33 | 62.22 | 15.97 | 141.79 | 63.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 55.52 | 48.11 | 15.10 | 103.36 | 44.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 54.10 | 42.88 | 15.15 | 104.28 | 45.61 |
| P/FFO | 416.70 | 54.09 | 15.28 | 1760.16 | 754.83 |
| P/TBV | 3.98 | 3.29 | 2.53 | 8.55 | 2.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.97 | 3.29 | 2.51 | 8.55 | 2.29 |
| P/S Ratio | 18.69 | 16.52 | 8.90 | 31.20 | 8.49 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates MP's fair value at $6.16 vs the current price of $66.63, implying -90.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 43/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.41 (P10) to $16.32 (P90), with a median of $10.41.
MP's current P/E of -133.3x compares to the industry median of 19.2x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -793.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 73.3x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover MP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $78.25 (range: $71.00 — $90.00), implying +17.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 43/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.